In the West, the Russian-Chinese gas pipeline Power of Siberia 2 has been called a “dark horse” for the global gas market. This is what the International Energy Agency ( IEA ) writes in its annual report World Energy Outlook 2024.
Experts believe that the project’s implementation could increase the global gas glut by 2030.
According to IEA forecasts, global LNG production capacity will increase by almost 50% by the end of the decade, from 580 billion to 850 billion cubic meters. The main drivers of growth will be the United States and Qatar . However, the growth in demand for LNG is expected to be smaller in all scenarios, which will lead to lower prices and increased competition between suppliers.
The agency is skeptical about the implementation of Power of Siberia 2, given that there is sufficient supply to meet demand in China . The IEA is also skeptical about the prospects for growth in gas exports from Russia, believing that the country will not be able to replace the volumes lost in Europe.
According to the IEA’s baseline scenario, Russia’s maximum gas supply to China could reach only 60 billion cubic meters per year by 2050. Experts believe Russia’s LNG production will peak at just under 50 billion cubic meters by 2030, well below the government’s target of 150 billion cubic meters.
Earlier, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called Ukraine’s energy sector the most pressing issue for global energy security. He called on Brussels to cut bureaucracy and provide the country with generators and equipment before a difficult winter.
Earlier, the world was predicted to begin the “era of electricity”.