If Ukraine decides not to extend the agreement on the transit of Russian gas, Gazprom will face the loss of the opportunity to export 13 to 16 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. According to estimates by the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF) , the company’s monetary losses in this case could amount to $3.9 to $4.8 billion annually.
The current contract for gas transit through Ukrainian territory expires at the end of 2024. If the agreement is not extended, the most vulnerable country among European importers will be Austria , which is more than 90% dependent on Russian gas. Other countries will be affected to a lesser extent.
Italy will be able to compensate for only a small share (about 5%) of Russian gas by increasing supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Slovakia expects to make up for the missing volumes with reverse supplies of regasified LNG from Germany via the Czech Republic or from Italy via Austria. Moldova plans to compensate for the losses by reversing the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline from Turkey via Romania .
However, even for Austria, according to experts, the situation is not hopeless. The country will be able to replenish Russian gas volumes through regasified LNG supplies from Italy and/or Germany directly or in transit through the Czech Republic and Slovakia. In addition, Austria has domestic gas reserves exceeding 8 billion cubic meters.
In early September, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal named the condition for Kiev’s consent to the transit of Russian oil.