In most cases, there is no need to rush to repay loans early, either now or in 2025. This opinion was expressed in an interview with Gazeta.Ru by Andrey Ponomarev, CEO of the online financial platform Webbankir .
The expert recalled that in the spring, the Bank of Russia and many economists allowed for a reduction in the key rate by the end of this year, but this did not happen due to high inflation rates. Moreover, the rate continued to grow, and today it is most likely that its reduction will begin no earlier than next spring. Under the risk scenario, this will happen only in the second half of 2025, Ponomarev specified.
“This means that, at least in the next six months to a year, we will observe a unique situation where the fee for servicing previously taken loans turns out to be less than the rates on current bank deposits. That is, instead of rushing to close the loan as soon as possible, it is more economically advantageous to put the free money into a deposit,” the expert said.
He gave an example. If a person has a loan taken at a rate of 15%, on which 1 million rubles remain to be paid, and there is free money to pay it off in full, then it is better to put it on deposit. At a rate of 18% per annum, which can now be found in many reliable banks, it will be enough to pay the interest on the loan, and in addition, the client will receive additional income – more than 30 thousand rubles over a 12-month horizon.
For comparison, according to the statistics of the Bank of Russia, in June-August 2023, the average weighted rates on consumer loans to individuals for a period of one to three years were in the range of 15.21-15.55% per annum. For loans over three years, they were even lower – 11.87-12.3% per annum. At the same time, in certain types of lending, the difference may be even more significant, Andrey Ponomarev points out. For example, in the case of mortgages, which in the first half of 2024 were issued under preferential programs at 2-6% per annum. Meanwhile, now the average rate on deposits in the top 10 largest, that is, a priori the most reliable banks in the country, has grown to 17.63% per annum. Given the determination of the Central Bank, by 2025 the profitability of deposits will increase even more, Ponomarev predicted.
On September 13, the Central Bank raised the key rate from 18 to 19%.
Earlier, the expert predicted maximum rates on deposits and loans in 2024-2025.